Kamala Harris Polling Compared to Hillary Clinton’s in 2016

With Vice President Kamala Harris’ surge in the polls, former President Donald Trump has downplayed the data, saying he’s “leading by a lot” and pointing to polling that suggested former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton would beat him in 2016.
Clinton, a former Secretary of State and senator for New York, lost the election to Trump eight years ago despite numerous polls, as well as polling averages, showing her ahead. Trump pulled off his win by narrowly winning in key battleground states, flipping Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania red for the first time since the 1980s. Florida, which had gone for former President Barack Obama in 2008 and in 2012, also flipped red for Trump.
At the same time, Clinton did win the popular vote by more than 2.8 million votes—a margin of 2.1 points. However, as the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population, determines the election’s outcome, her national vote lead didn’t matter. Trump’s win was widely viewed as an upset victory and led many to question what went wrong with the polls.
“You know, in 2016, I was polling low because people didn’t want to say who they’re voting for. I don’t know if that’s supposed to be a good thing or a bad thing, but it is what it is. And we did very well in 2016,” Trump told reporters during a press conference at his Bedminster golf club in New Jersey on Thursday.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign via email for comment on Sunday. The Trump campaign, when reached for comment, emailed Newsweek polling data from conservative polling company Rasmussen Reports showing the former president leading the vice president by 4 points nationally.
But how do the polls in 2024 actually compare to 2016? Here’s a closer look at where things stood then versus now.
Exactly eight years ago on August 18, 2016, polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight, which became part of ABC News in 2018, showed Clinton with a substantial national polling lead over Trump. The polling average showed the Democratic candidate with 43.6 percent support compared to Trump’s 36.8 percent—a lead of 6.8 points for Clinton.
Comparatively, Harris is only 2.6 points ahead of Trump nationally in FiveThirtyEight’s current average as of Sunday afternoon. The Democrat has the backing of 46.4 percent of voters while the Republican has the support of 43.8 percent. Notably, Harris’ national lead is smaller than Clinton’s on the same day in 2016, although the vice president’s overall support appears to be a little higher.
Clinton was substantially ahead of Trump in Michigan at this point in 2016, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average. The average showed Clinton more than 11 points ahead of Trump on August 18, 2016.
Comparatively, Harris is just 2.6 points ahead in the current average. Trump has the support of 43.4 percent of Michiganders while Harris has the backing of 46 percent as of Sunday.
Clinton went on to lose Michigan by just 0.23 percent in 2016. Trump carried the Midwestern state by 47.5 percent compared to her 47.27 percent. The margin was less than 11,000 votes.
Trump was down substantially in Pennsylvania in August 2016 as well. Exactly eight years ago, the FiveThirtyEight’s polling average showed the Republican with 41.2 percent and Clinton ahead by 8.3 points at 49.5 percent.
As of Sunday, FiveThirtyEight has Harris narrowly ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania by 1.4 points. The vice president has the support of 46.2 percent of Pennsylvania voters while the former president is backed by 44.8 percent.
Trump won Pennsylvania by 0.72 percent in 2016. He secured 48.18 percent of the state’s voters compared to Clinton’s 47.46 percent. The margin was just over 44,000 votes.
Similar to Michigan, Clinton was leading Trump by more than 11 points in FiveThirtyEight’s Wisconsin average eight years ago today. The average had the Democrat at 50.7 percent and the Republican at 39.4 percent.
Harris currently is ahead of Trump by about 3 points in Wisconsin. The FiveThirtyEight average has the vice president with the backing of 47.2 percent of Wisconsin voters compared to 44.2 percent that back Trump.
Clinton lost in Wisconsin by 0.77 percent, or just under 23,000 votes. The Democrat won 46.45 of the vote in the state and the Republican won 47.22 percent.
Back in 2016, Clinton was more than 5 points ahead of Trump in Florida at this point in the race, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average. The Democrat had the backing of 48.7 percent of Floridians and the Republican was supported by 43.2 percent.
The polling average for Florida is nearly reversed as of Sunday, with Trump in the lead by 4.6 points. The former president leads Harris with 47.9 percent of the Southern state’s voters to her 43.3 percent.
Trump won Florida by 1.2 points in 2016. He carried the state with 49.02 percent of the vote while Clinton had 47.82 percent. The margin was nearly 113,000 votes.
Analysts have offered multiple theories for what went wrong with the polling in 2016. As Trump mentioned on Thursday, some have suggested that voters did not admit to pollsters that they planned to vote for the Republican. Others have suggested that the polls were weighted badly, giving certain demographics too much influence.
Some Trump voters may also have been less likely to respond to surveys. An April 2021 report from the Pew Research Center explains part of why this could be the case.
“Achieving proper representation of Republicans is more difficult than it used to be. Survey participation has long been linked to individuals’ levels of education and social trust. Now that the GOP is doing better attracting voters with lower levels of education and, according to some analysts, doing better than in the past attracting low trust adults, Republican participation in surveys is waning, increasing reliance on weighting as a corrective,” the report said.
Many pollsters believe they’ve made significant improvements and corrections compared to 2016. However, the polls were notably off in 2020 as well, underestimating support for Trump. Although they largely showed President Joe Biden winning nationally and in key battleground states, the margins were closer than the polls suggested.